Exasperated Calculator

Well, it’s all over.

The final polls were pretty close, with the final two party preferred result favouring the ALP 53 to 47. The ALP has won at least 83 seats so far, and is likely to pick up another four.

Kevin Rudd will be the next Prime Minister, with the cabinet to be announced later this week.

Ex-PM Howard looks to be defeated in his seat of Bennelong. If not, he’ll surely resign. Peter Costello has announced his retirement as of the next election, and will be on the back bench. Mark Vaile, Ex-Deputy PM, has also announced he will not seek the leadership of The Nationals. The Liberal leadership is open, and will be decided in the next couple of weeks.

Announcements: Nothing much. The ALP has final costings for all policies and $10 million for Tassie Devils. Nil return for the Coalition.

Polls: It’s poll-a-palooza today. Newspoll ALP 52, Galaxy ALP 52, Morgan phone ALP 54.5, AC Nielsen phone ALP 57, AC Nielsen online ALP 57. Someone’s going to look pretty dumb in about 24 hours.

Just one day to go. Don’t forget to vote, otherwise you’ll get fined. No endorsements here, you’ll have to make your own mind up. Next post will follow the results.

Anouncements:

• ALP has Resources, Energy, Fisheries and phase out of full fee university degrees.

• Coalition has sport, regional partnerships, women and foreign affairs.

Polls: AC Nielsen ALP 57. Galaxy ALP 52. Someone’s going to look silly on Sunday.

Line of the day: The Chaser team, responding to Jackie Kelly’s suggestion that an attempt to smear the ALP was a Chaser-like stunt:

If this was really a Chaser stunt, where were the big props, where was the Osama Bin Laden costume? The only real similarity [with a Chaser gag] is that the Liberals in Lindsay got caught and may be facing charges.

Just two days to the close of voting.

Announcements: The Coalition has a Hoons policy. And the ALP has a trade policy and an aged care workforce policy.

Polls: No new polls, but a couple of new markets to bet on the TPP and seats result.

Just three more days to go!

Announcements: ALP regional policy and a couple of small packages of older policies from the coalition (Water and Clean Energy).

Polls: Galaxy marginals ALP 52 (a swing of 5.5). Newspoll ALP 54. Probably only one Newspoll before the big day now.

Other: Some fuss over the eligibility of 13 ALP candidates.

Four days to go.

Another quiet day in terms of policy. The Coalition had a Forestry policy and that was it.

5 days to go.

All quiet but the polls.

Polls: Morgan phone ALP 56. Galaxy marginals ALP ahead enough to win.

6 days to go.

Announcements: The ALP announces a National Primary Health Care Strategy. Nothing from the coalition.

Polls: Newspoll marginals ALP 54 in the 18 most marginal seats.

7 days to go. This time next week, we should know the result.

Announcements: ALP will give a free health check to all students starting primary school, costing $45m. Nothing from the coalition.

Polls: Morgan face to face ALP 56.5. And the Possum predicts the ALP will get 55.15% at the election.

Line of the day: Tony Abbott in diplomatic mode:

The best protection for a worker [...] is the chance of another job.

8 days to go. Unlucky if you’re from Discworld.

Announcements: Coalition announces $250m for aged care places. ALP has $15m for ethanol plant trials.

Polls: AC Nielsen ALP 54.

9 days to go.

Announcements: The ALP campaign launch, including:

• School Computers for everyone in years 9-12.

• Additional apprenticeships (450,000 training places).

• Renewable Energy funding.

Total of $2.3 billion.

A few minor policies from the Coalition: Aviation, Agriculture, Fishing. About $60m total.

10 days to go.

Announcements: A few small ALP things today: Centre for Civil-Millitary Cooperation ($5m), $15m for green precincts, and one biggie, solar homes and schools ($380m).

Polls: Morgan senate, showing up to seven Greens could be elected.

11 days to go.

Announcements: Coalition policy launch, including:

• Child care tax rebate to be paid up front, greater funding to build child care centres.

• First home ownership accounts with tax-free elements, to be topped up by the taxpayer.

• Release of 961 hectares for housing in several stats.

• Tax rebates for education expenses, including private school fees.

A total of $9.4 billion.

ALP announces defence policy.

Polls: Newspoll ALP 55.

12 days to go.

Nothing going on today. Not even an exciting poll. Everyone’s waiting for the launches.

13 days to go.

Announcements:

• ALP announces $10m for the Australia Council over 4 years.

• Coalition pledges $50m for veterans and an ABC Childrens Channel ($82m).

Polls: AC Nielsen Online ALP 56.

14 days to go.

Another quiet day. Running out of policies, getting towards time to vote…

Polls: Morgan phone ALP 56, Morgan face to face ALP 62.

15 days to go.

Quiet day. Nothing national announced.

Quote of the day: Wayne Swan on interest rates:

“I can’t make irresponsible promises like John Howard has been making”

Not everyone has John’s talents, after all. 16 days to go.

Announcements:

• Coalition announces 52 weeks of unpaid parental leave for parents.

• ALP announces a Horticulture Code of Conduct.

17 days to go.

Very, very quiet on the hustings today. Almost as if there was something else on…

18 days to go.

Announcements:

• Coalition announces another $1.6b in roads, this time for SA.

• ALP announces a homelessness policy.

Another quiet day. Almost certainly a quiet first half of this week given the Melbourne Cup.

19 days to go.