Exasperated Calculator

Weight: 111.4kg
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Weight: 111.8kg

Weight: 112.0kg

Weight: 110.5kg

Weight: 111.0kg
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I just finished reading a couple of books on the share market, in particular about the early 2000s frauds by Worldcom and Enron: A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market and The Smartest Guys in the Room.

The question that struck me while reading the books (particularly the Enron one) was whether or not I would have bought those shares, and got caught up in the same collapse. What was it about the Enron shares that ’smelled’ before the big collapse became inevitable.

This isn’t really a question about making money in the short run, but rather about whether or not a company’s business is “real”, and there for the long run. In the short run, all kinds of silly things can make money, so long as you sell in time. But in the long run, there has to be a real business behind the company.

Enron, as far as I can tell, was a company where the fundamental ‘real’ business was pretty non-existent, or was losing a lot of money because they weren’t charging enough. A lot of the gains were coming from mark-to-market accounting (taking the entire profits of a 20-year deal as soon as it was signed), or the trading operations (which were good, but a very volatile business). As far as I can tell the actual fraud was a fairly small part of the problem, really only delaying the final end of the company by a few quarters.

Paying attention to the actual cash flow, rather than just the reported profits, would probably have helped spot the problems early (as, indeed, it did for some), but I suspect that this rule would be too strict - you’d tend to eliminate some companies that do have a good business, just not a lot of cash.

I have a few personal rules of thumb for my own (hypothetical, so far) share purchases:

• Focus on businesses that supply some bit of GDP that is clearly identifiable.

• Avoid businesses that depend on Government decisions for their profitability: health insurance, airlines, and so on.

• Make sure that the price to earnings ratio isn’t too wacky (normally a good sign that there’s speculation, or some kind of other problem, going on).

• Understand the actual business of the company (where does it make its money from), as opposed to what they say the rules are.

By this basis, Enron would have thrown up red flags on at least two, maybe all four, if I’d looked into it enough.

Which I suppose is the real lesson - if you’re going to invest in a company, you should understand it in a lot of detail, because otherwise you’re at a lot of risk.

Make your own “Star Wars” opening sequence, including the Fox & Lucasfilm logos (which you can edit to be other things). (Via)

A rolodex for shoes.

Make your own plane, including Concorde and Space Ship One. (Via)

Ever find that alarm clocks don’t work for you? Well, if Clocky doesn’t help, maybe you need an alarm clock with random error built in. (Via)

Someone managed to copy the master key for electronic voting machines by copying a picture from the company’s website.

Weight: 109.8kg
Breakfast: Weetbix
Lunch: Pizza Rolls
Dinner: Mince with Pesto
Snacks: none
Total Calories: 1558kCal
Exercise: none
Ladder: none

I have, just recently, become something of a devotee (albeit one with a bit of practice needed yet) of David Allen’s “Getting Things Done” method. What I like about it is that, unlike most of the Stephen Covey like approaches to organising your life, it can cope with the kind of ‘creative chaos’ that most information workers live in.

(As an aside, I’m not sure I like the ‘information worker’ label - kind of makes it sound like it’s an IT thing, when it really should apply to a lot of professionals)

I’ve tried doing the ‘to do’ list thing in the past, but normally end up with a complete breakdown within a couple of days. The problem is that the systems don’t cope with the things that just come along. And I can’t remember a day I’ve had recently where I finished the day without having at least half a dozen things come up. The Getting Things Done (GTD) approach actually embraces this, and is actually built around an approach of continuously reviewing the tasks that are coming in.

It’s probably not something that works for everyone, but if you’re interested in looking for a new system with a bit more flexibility than most of the popular systems, it’s well worth a look. The book (”How To Get Things Done”) can be found fairly easily in Australia, or ordered off Amazon.

The changing pattern of plant-growth regions in the US over the last decade and a half.

The very, very not safe for work ‘State of the Union’ for PETA, the animal rights fanatics in the US, features a gradually undressing woman ranting about animal rights. What has to be wrong with your cause that you need to resort to this kind of thing to get your message across? (I’m linking to Wonkette rather than PETA, in the hopes that it’ll encourage PETA less…)

50 grams. (Via)

Otherwise surely Google would have pulled over to ask for directions…

A table that can walk when you push it. Scary, scary stuff… (Via)

Weight: 109.9kg
Breakfast: Weetbix
Lunch: Vegemite sandwich x 2
Dinner: Beef vindaloo curry
Snacks: None
Total Calories: 1310kCal
Exercise: None
Ladder: na